JavaZone 2008 - Agenda -

Prediction Markets - A different approach to software cost estimation

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Introductory
Methodology and Business

Room: Lab 6
Timeslot: 17.09.08 11:45
Speakers: Stein Grimstad and Frode Torvund

Spekulative markeder (slik som aksjemarkedet og oddsen) har i mange tilfeller vist seg å være bedre enn eksperter når det gjelder å forutsi hendelser. Dette har vært tilfelle innen en rekke områder - innen alt fra estimering av oljepris fem år frem i tid til å tippe hvem som vinner årets cupfinale. I dette foredraget vil vi gå gjennom teori og praksis for å vise hvordan slike marked fungerer, og vi vil vise hvordan teknikken kan brukes til estimering i systemutviklingsprosjekter. Foredraget er basert på aktuell forskning og våre egne erfaringer fra et systemutviklingsprosjekt hvor vi innførte denne teknikken.

Outline:

Introduksjon, 5 min
Hvordan virker et Prediction Market (PM), 10 min
PM som teknikk for å estimere systemutvikling, 20 min
Erfaringer fra innføring av PM i et prosjekt, 15 min

Required experience:

None

Expected audience:

Anyone interested in software cost estimation

Stein Grimstad

Stein has more than 10 years’ industry experience as software developer and solution architect. His professional interests cover many areas of software development, but are particularly related to the interaction between clients and vendors. He received a phd from UiO in 2006, and is a member of the estimation project at Simula Research Laboratory.

As a co-founder of Wasteless, Stein work closely with their industrial partners. He frequently talks at international conferences, give courses, and is the author of several papers published in international journals and magazines. Topics include expert estimation, process improvement and evaluation of software technology.
Frode Torvund

Frode currently works as a consultant at Know IT Objectnet AS. He has been working as a developer, architect, advisor and project manager in defense, oil & energy, telecom and public sector since 1995. Frode has a wide range of professional interests, but enjoys in particular working with the customer to identify their needs and creating the good solution.